[Tywyll]

Originally Posted by The Last Conformist

For simplicity's sake, let's go back to just looking at a single attack. We're still assuming two fencers both with skill 90%.

CoC: To successfully hit, you need to roll below your skill (90% chance) and your enemy needs to fail to roll below his (100%-90%=10%). Thus, .9*.1=.09=9% chance of a successful hit.

SB5: Here it gets more complicated; you can successfully hit by rolling a normal success (19-90 on the dice - a 72% chance) and your enemy rolling a failure (10% chance), or by rolling a critical (18% chance) and your opponent a normal success or a failure (72%+10%=82% chance). Thus, the total chance of a successful hit is .72*.1+.18*.82=.22=22% (approx.)

Hypothetical neutral system: This could be implemented in various ways, but, by definition, the chance of a success against an equally skilled opponent is 50%.


The chance of at least one success in two tries, where the chance of success in a single try is X, is Y=1-(1-X)^2. Putting in X=9%, 22%, 50% gives Y=17%, 39%, 75%, respectively.

(19% above is an error for 17%.)

Wow... thanks for that view behind the curtain. I really appreciate it. Were there not criticals and impales in CoC? Its been so long since I played, I just forgot the differences.

Cheers!