Yeah. It really does depend on the "flavor" of your game. How much armoring enchantment do you allow? Do you have stacking limits on spells? How strictly do you follow the encumberance rules?
30-40 points isn't really that high, even using "standard" spell rules. Let's assume you're playing in a game (like mine) where spells are capped at 4 points for rune and 8 points for spirit (ok. we use a scaling cap, but whatever). So a priest of humakt is facing you with a broadsword with truesword and bladesharp 8 going. That's hardly even out of the range that a random beginning level priest might have. Let's also say he's got sufficient points of the strength spell to get a 2d6 strength bonus (typically about a strength 4). Again. Nothing is out of the ordinary, nor even requires any houserules (aside from those limiting the possibilities).
Average damage on a regular hit becomes (5.5*2=11)+7+8=26. Against someone with say a 12 point shield (pretty typical) and 6 points of armor (ring+leather, arguably the best ap for the enc in RQ3), he's going to take 8 points of damage to a location every single swing (which will likely take that location down barring significant strengthening enchantment). A special gets "ugly" in this situation, since it bumps the damage up an additional 11 points (now an average of 37) if he chooses to impale, or 5 points if he chooses to just take max damage.
Max damage in that situation is 18+12+8=38 damage on a regular hit, and 36+12+8=56 on an impale. That's pretty brutal.
Ok. But let's pretend that you're also a priest, and you've got 4 points of shield and 8 points of protection. That's an additional 16 points of armor. Note, that this armor "works" whether you parry or not. So your worn armor has jumped to 22. Suddenly, the 12 points of parry from the shield isn't as significant as the worn armor you get. Avoiding a critical matters *more* (since it's worth 22 points) then the parry. Of course, you could pretty safely parry as well, since in this case, your parry gives you 34 points of protection and the other guy has to get a lucky hit (an impale or better) to have much chance of doing any damage to you.
That's an edge case honestly. The two skills are almost a wash. But if we transform that opponent into a Zorak Zoran priest using crush4, wielding a troll maul, and capable of getting a 3d6 damage bonus, suddenly are numbers might not look so great. Dodging starts to look pretty good when the opponents average damage hits 18+10+13.5+8=41.5 damage (yes, that's average for a 3d6 bonus, with a troll maul with truemace, crush4, and bludgeon8).
I'll also point out that the above mentioned troll would only need some spirit spells (which he can pick automatically once he's a priest and spends one power for spellteaching), and 5 points of rune magic (and since he needs 10 to qualify for priest, that shouldn't be a problem, right?). So basically, any random zorak zoran priest can do this without any special items or abilities.
IMO, it's quite common to face foes that can do that kind of damage. And of course, one of the disadvantages that PCs have is that while they're expected to fight and defeat many foes over the course of an adventure, each foe they fight is *only* fighting the PCs. Thus, he's likely to run out of shield before the foes he fights over the course of an adventure run out of stuff like truesword, crush, or slash.
Having a dodge is pretty darn nice in those situations. Yes. It's harder to get the skill up. It starts at a lower base and suffers penalties based on enc. But more experienced characters in my campaign almost always take some time to learn some dodge just so that they have the chance to use it if/when they need it.
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